伊朗是下一个吗?

政治能否从历史中汲取教训?或者不管过去灾难性的教训而迫于致命性的强迫重蹈覆辙?布什总统的伊拉克新战略再一次提出了这一古老的哲学和历史问题。

表面上看,布什总统为饱经战火的伊拉克开始了一个新的政治和军事战略。布什的新策略可以用三个标题概括,那就是更多的美国军队、更大的伊拉克责任以及为更多的伊拉克士兵提供更多的美国培训。

如果单纯地将这一新计划实施到伊拉克,那么,有两点马上引人注目。第一是贝克和汉米尔顿报告的几乎所有建议被忽略;第二,该计划本身尽管面临伊拉克的乱局依旧非常简单化。鉴于先前稳定伊拉克的“新战略”失败了,那么,尽管增兵21,000人,还是无法说最新的“新战略”将会取得更大的成功。

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