Kommt die Inflation zurück?

CAMBRIDGE – Momentan herrscht in allen Industrieländern niedrige Inflation und angesichts der Kombination aus hoher Arbeitslosigkeit und stagnierendem BIP-Wachstum entfallen auch die üblichen Gründe  für den Aufwärtsdruck auf die Preise. Dennoch zeigen sich Finanzinvestoren zunehmend in Sorge, dass die Inflation aufgrund der von der Federal Reserve und der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) veranlassten enormen Ausweitung der Reserven der Geschäftsbanken letztendlich ansteigen wird. Zumindest manche Investoren erinnern sich, dass eine steigende Inflation typischerweise die Folge einer monetären Expansion ist und sie befürchten, dass es auch diesmal nicht anders sein wird.  

Die Anleger reagieren auf diese Befürchtungen mit dem Kauf von Gold, landwirtschaftlichen Flächen und anderen herkömmlichen Absicherungen gegen die Inflation. Der Goldpreis stieg jüngst auf ein Vier-Monats-Hoch und nähert sich nun einem Preis von 1.700 Dollar pro Unze.  Die Preise für Ackerland in Iowa und Illinois sind im vergangenen Jahr mehr als 10 Prozent gestiegen. Und die jüngst veröffentlichten Sitzungsprotokolle des Vorstandes der Federal Reserve, aus denen hervorgeht, dass man eine weitere Runde der quantitativen Lockerung unterstützt, sorgten für drastische Preissprünge bei Gold, Silber, Platin und anderen Metallen.

Aber im Gegensatz zu den privaten Anlegern beharren die Vertreter der Fed, dass es diesmal sehr wohl anders sein wird. Sie stellen fest, dass die enorme Expansion der Reserven der Geschäftsbanken nicht zu einem vergleichbaren Anstieg der Geldmenge und der Kredite geführt hat.  Obwohl die Reserven in den vergangenen drei Jahren jährlich um einen Wert von 22 Prozent anstiegen,  ist das Geldmengenaggregat M2, welches das nominale BIP-Wachstum und die Inflation über lange Zeit am besten nachvollzieht, in den gleichen drei Jahren um weniger als 6 Prozent gestiegen.   

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