通胀卷土重来?

美国剑桥—眼下,所有工业国通货膨胀都很低,高失业和低GDP增长的组合也消除了价格上涨压力的常规原因。尽管如此,金融投资者仍在日益担忧通胀终究会开始上升,因为在美联储和欧洲央行推动下,商业银行准备金增加了许多。至少一部分投资者还记得,通胀抬头总是随着货币扩张而发生,他们担心这一回也不会有什么不同。

投资者对这种担忧的反应是买入黄金、农地和其他传统通胀对冲工具。最近,黄金价格触及四个月高点并向1700美元/盎司靠拢。艾奥瓦和伊利诺伊的每英亩农地价格也比去年上涨了10%多。最新的美联储董事会备忘录暗示支持新一轮量化宽松,这导致了黄金、白银、铂金和其他金属的大幅上涨。

但是,与私人投资者不同,美联储官员坚持认为这一回将完全不同。他们指出,商业银行准备金的大幅扩张并没有导致相应规模的货币供给和信用增加。在过去三年中,准备金以每年22%的速度增加,但与此同时,广义货币总量(M2,长期来看,该指标与名义GDP和通胀密切相关)只增加了6%。

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