Le plan de relance est-il inutile?

La lecture de la charge de l’économiste de Harvard Robert Barro contre le plan de relance américain intelligemment développée dans son article paru récemment dans le The Wall Street Journal est tout à fait réconfortante, surtout après avoir supporté les inepties de journaleux républicains dénués de déontologie et d’universitaires ignares qui prétendent chacun à leur manière, que les principes de base de l’économie font qu’il est impossible que les décisions de dépenses prises par le gouvernement puissent altérer le flot de l’activité économique.

Pour autant, il me semble que Barro a mal interprété comment son propre raisonnement s’applique à la situation actuelle. Barro écrit qu’il « considère que l’effet multiplicateur de dépense est de 0,4 sur une année et de 0,6 sur une période de deux ans.... Le multiplicateur [ de l’imposition ] est aux alentours de moins 1,1.... [Donc,] le PIB serait supérieur de 120 milliards de dollars en 2009 et de 180 milliards en 2010..., » et de 60 milliards en 2011.

Cela signifie qu’environ 1,3 millions de personnes supplémentaires auront un emploi aux Etats-Unis en 2009, 1,9 millions de plus en 2010, et 700 mille de plus en 2011. Supposons que ce à quoi le gouvernement a dépensé l’argent soit équivalent pour nous en moyenne à la valeur des deux tiers des dépenses effectuées par le secteur privé. Dans ce cas, les 600 milliards de dollars dépensés auraient rapporté environ 810 milliards de dollars d’affaires pour un profit social de 210 milliards de dollars (et ceux qui seraient autrement au chômage conjoncturel ne valorisent pas tant que cela leur temps de loisir perdu).

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/AIdWoCY/fr;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.