Отжил ли свое рост, стимулируемый экспортом?

КЕМБРИДЖ – За прошедшие пять десятилетий развивающиеся страны, сумевшие разработать конкурентноспособные отрасли, работающие на экспорт, вознаграждались необыкновенно быстрыми темпами экономического роста: Тайвань и Южная Корея в 1960-х, такие страны Юго-восточной Азии, как Малайзия, Таиланд и Сингапур – в 1970-х, Китай – в 1980-х, и, наконец, Индия – в 1990-х годах.

Во всех этих случаях, как и в некоторых других – также, по большей части, в Азии – внутренние реформы могли бы стимулировать экономический рост независимо от международной торговли. Однако трудно представить, что масштабы этого роста были бы сравнимы с действительностью – 10 процентов и более в год на душу населения – не будь мировой экономики, способной «поглотить» экспортные товары этих стран.

Многие страны пытаются перенять подобную модель роста. Они, однако, редко добиваются такого успеха, поскольку внутренние предпосылки остаются несоответствующими. Выход на мировой рынок без принятия активных мер по обеспечению компетентности в той или иной современной отрасли производства или обслуживания чаще всего означает, что страна останется убогим поставщиком природных ресурсов и трудоёмкой продукции – к примеру, швейных изделий.

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