Ist Wachstum durch Export passé?

CAMBRIDGE – Fünf Jahrzehnte lang wurden Entwicklungsländer, die es schafften, wettbewerbsfähige Exportbranchen aufzubauen, mit erstaunlichen Wachstumsraten belohnt: Taiwan und Südkorea in den 1960ern, südostasiatische Länder wie Malaysia, Thailand und Singapur in den 1970ern, China in den 1980ern und schließlich Indien in den 1990ern.

In allen diesen Fällen und einigen anderen – auch zumeist in Asien – hätten innenpolitische Reformen sicherlich unabhängig vom internationalen Handel Wachstum erzeugt. Doch ist nur schwer vorstellbar, wie das daraus entstehende Wachstum – das eine beispiellose Höhe von jährlich 10 % oder mehr pro Kopf erreichte – so hoch hätte sein können, ohne eine Weltwirtschaft, die die Exporte dieser Länder aufnehmen konnte.

Viele Länder versuchen dieses Wachstumsmodell nachzuahmen, doch sind sie nur selten so erfolgreich, da die Voraussetzungen im Inland nicht erfüllt werden. Wenn man sich ohne vorausschauende Politik, die eine gewisse Kompetenz in einer modernen Fertigungs- oder Dienstleistungsindustrie gewährleistet, auf die Weltmärkte begibt, wird man wahrscheinlich ein verarmter Exporteur von natürlichen Ressourcen und arbeitsintensiven Produkten wie Bekleidung bleiben.

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