出口带动增长是否已是明日黄花?

    剑桥--过去五十年以来,某些发展中国家发展竞争性出口产业取得了令人瞩目的经济增长率。二十世纪六十年代的台湾和韩国,七十年代的马来西亚、泰国和新加坡等国,八十年代的中国以及最后九十年代的印度都是如此。

    所有这些案例以及其他主要是亚洲几个国家中,国内改革确实产生了经济增长,而无论国际贸易状况如何。年度人均增长高达10%,前所未有。但是人们难以想见,在全球经济难以消化这些国家的出口的情况下经济增长会如此之高。

    许多国家正在试图模仿这一经济增长模式,但是少有如此成功。这是因为国内的先决条件没有得到满足。如果一个国家没有前瞻性的政策确保某些现代制造业或服务行业具有竞争力就转向国际市场,就有可能无法摆脱出口自然资源以及服装等劳动力密集型产品的贫穷地位。

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