是否轮到欧洲房地产市场破灭?

    美国房地产市场在某种程度上由于所谓“次级”房屋贷款的推动而形成泡沫,这一泡沫成为当今金融市场动荡的诱因。但是这一泡沫并不限于美国。在欧洲,过去十年中房地产价格也大幅度上升,在许多情况下比美国还有过之无不及。其他经合组织和新兴市场国家也是如此。在这些国家中,迅速攀升的收入给资产价格施加了压力。

    确实,除了德国和日本等几个少数国家外,几乎所有地方的房地产价格都达到了前所未有的高度。房地产是所有资产中最为具有地域限制的,这样的全球性模式又是如何形成的呢?

    最近的研究表明,全球房地产繁荣与各大国中央银行前所未有地增加流动资金供给紧密相联。的确,像给一般情况下没有资格获得房屋按揭贷款(也就是所谓的次级房屋贷款)的购房人提供贷款这样的金融创新也发挥了一定的作用。但是,如果各国中央银行没有创造充足的流动资金以及长期低利率的环境,大概不会以如此的规模提供次级房屋贷款。

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