¿Terminó la crisis financiera europea?

LONDRES – La recientemente anunciada política de compra de bonos por el Banco Central Europeo, denominada «transacciones monetarias directas» (TMD) marca la convergencia de los bancos centrales europeos con sus contrapartes anglosajonas. Si bien las acciones del BCE representan la mejor posibilidad hasta ahora de poner fin a la crisis que continúa desde 2010, el Banco ha redoblado significativamente las apuestas para los gobiernos.

El marco de políticas del BCE es adecuado para contrarrestar llamaradas sistémicas, pero muy poco apto para ocuparse de a los incendios locales, que pueden propagarse de manera incontrolable. El programa de TMD, que permite al ECB comprar bonos soberanos de países que han acordado reformar sus economías, equilibra significativamente el campo de juego entre el Banco y sus pares en las economías avanzadas. España tiene los mismos problemas fiscales y estructurales previos al lanzamiento de las TMD, pero ahora cuenta con un prestamista externo de última instancia. Eso cambia las reglas del juego.

Con el régimen previo a las TMD, una salida de capitales de España, a través de la venta de bonos gubernamentales o de la liquidación de créditos privados, daba como resultado condiciones monetarias más restrictivas. La venta de bonos soberanos bajo el régimen de tipo de cambio fijo generaba una presión directa ascendente sobre sus rendimientos, mientras que las ventas de los activos privados por parte de extranjeros tenían un efecto similar, pero a través de canales indirectos. La contracción monetaria solo podía prevenirse si otra fuente de capital extranjero (privada o el BCE) podía reemplazar la salida de fondos.

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