Ist Europas Finanzkrise vorbei?

LONDON – Die europäische Zentralbank hat kürzlich eine Politik des Anleihenkaufs angekündigt. Was sie „endgültige Finanztransaktionen“ (outright monetary transactions, OMTs) nennt, ist eine Annäherung an die Zentralbanken des angelsächsischen Raums. Diese Maßnahme der EZB bietet bislang die beste Chance, die seit 2010 schwelende Krise zu beenden, aber die Bank hat damit ihren Einsatz im Spiel gegen die Regierungen deutlich erhöht.

Die politischen Möglichkeiten der EZB sind gut dazu geeignet, große systemische Flächenbrände zu bekämpfen, aber kaum in der Lage, örtliche Feuer zu löschen und ihre Verbreitung zu verhindern. Das OMT-Programm, das der EZB den Kauf von Staatsanleihen von Ländern ermöglicht, die sich bereit erklärt haben, ihre Volkswirtschaften zu reformieren, schafft einen signifikanten Ausgleich zwischen der Bank und anderen Notenbanken der Industrieländer. Spanien hat dieselben Haushalts- und Strukturprobleme wie vor dem Programm, aber kann nun auf einen externen Kreditgeber der letzten Instanz zugreifen. Dies ist eine völlig neue Situation.

Vor dem OMT-Programm hatte der aus Spanien abfließende Kapitalfluss im Zuge des Verkaufs von Staatsanleihen oder der Liquidierung privater Vermögenswerte eine Verschärfung der monetären Bedingungen zur Folge. Verkäufe von Staatsanleihen zu den bestehenden festen Wechselkursen führten zu direktem Aufwärtsdruck auf ihre Zinserträge. Verkäufe privater Wertpapiere durch Ausländer hatten einen ähnlichen Effekt, aber indirekt. Eine Verschärfung der monetären Bedingungen konnte nur dadurch verhindert werden, dass eine andere ausländische Kapitalquelle (privat oder die EZB) den Abfluss ausglich.

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