欧洲金融危机结束了吗?

伦敦—欧洲央行最近宣布了自称为“直接货币交易”(OMT)的债券购买计划,这标志着欧洲央行开始向其盎格鲁-撒克逊同侪靠拢。欧洲央行的举措代表着终结2010年爆发的欧洲债务危机的最佳办法,但也将显著增加各国政府的风险。

欧洲央行的这一政策框架很适合扑救系统性大火,但不适合局部火灾,而后者可能形成燎原之势。OMT计划允许欧洲央行购买同意实施经济改革的国家的主权债券,从而让欧洲央行与其发达国家同侪站在了同一水平线上。西班牙在OMT计划宣布之前就存在相同的财政和结构问题,但现在,它有了外部最后贷款人。这可能扭转整个局面。

在前OMT时期的制度中,西班牙的资本外流——不管是通过国债出售还是私人债务清算——都会导致货币条件趋紧。在固定汇率制度下出售主权债券会形成收益率上升的直接压力,外国人出售私人证券也具有类似的效应,但渠道不同。货币紧缩将一直持续到另一种外国资本资源(不管来自资本还是欧洲央行)能够取代资本外流为止。

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