L'euro, l'Europe et l'étalon-or

ROME –On entend dire de plus en plus fréquemment que l'euro va suivre le même chemin que l'étalon-or dans les années 1930. Et de plus en plus, le raisonnement qui sous-tend cette idée paraît convaincant. Pour autant, cette prédiction est-elle justifiée ?

Après le crash boursier de 1929, l'Europe a encaissé un énorme choc déflationniste. La production s'est effondrée et le chômage a explosé. Incapables de s'entendre sur des mesures de relance, les pays européens ont agi unilatéralement. Chacun de son coté, ils ont abandonné l'étalon-or et dévalué leur monnaie. En desserrant le crédit de cette manière, l'une après l'autre ils se sont relevés de la Grande dépression.

Aujourd'hui l'Europe est frappée à nouveau par un choc déflationniste. Cette fois-ci c'est l'euro qui constitue une contrainte quant aux mesures de relance. Les pays de la zone euro ne peuvent ni dévaluer leur monnaie nationale ni faciliter le crédit, car ils ont délégué la politique monétaire à la Banque centrale européenne (BCE). Et comme le chômage atteint également des sommets,  ils n'auront d'autre alternative que d'abandonner unilatéralement l'euro, nous disent les prophètes de mauvais augures.

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