欧洲会重蹈黄金覆辙吗?

罗马—现在,关于欧元将重蹈20世纪30年代金本位覆辙的传闻越来越流行。这一传闻背后的原因似乎极具说服力。但这就意味着欧元的丧钟注定要敲响吗?

1929年股市大崩盘后,欧洲又经历了严重的通缩冲击。产出剧减,失业率剧增。各国政府没能达成相互合作、一起采取通胀手段的协议,而是选择各自为政。结果,各国一个接着一个放弃了金本位,贬值了本国货币。通过这种方式的信贷宽松,它们一个接着一个从大萧条中实现了复苏。

如今,欧洲再一次经历着严重的通缩冲击。这一回,套在通胀手段头上的枷锁是欧元。各国政府没有本国货币可实施贬值,也不能放松信贷,货币政策由欧洲央行代为执行。随着失业率再一次上升至足以引发崩盘的高度,看起来各国别无选择,只能单方面抛弃欧元。

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