Paul Lachine

L'Europe fait fausse route !

BARCELONE – Les pays à la "périphérie" de la zone euro (la Grèce, l'Espagne, le Portugal, l'Irlande et peut-être d'autres) doivent procéder à des ajustements supplémentaires que l'on discute généralement séparément les unes des autres, alors qu'il faudrait les traiter conjointement. Trois types d'ajustements sont nécessaires au redémarrage de ces économies : entre la zone euro et le reste du monde, entre la périphérie de la zone euro et son centre et entre dette et revenus pour les pays lourdement endettés de la périphérie, notamment la Grèce.

Dans chaque cas les solutions sont claires, mais leur application complexe. Tout d'abord, pour diminuer la pression sur les pays de la périphérie, la zone euro doit exporter certains des ajustements voulus en procédant à une dévaluation significative de l'euro - dévaluation déjà en cours. C'est l'ajustement entre la zone euro et le reste du monde.

Il faut ensuite regagner en compétitivité. L'ajustement entre les pays de la périphérie et ceux du centre de la zone euro suppose de supprimer le différentiel d'inflation qui s'est installé avant 2008, durant les années d'abondance des capitaux. Dans des pays comme la Grèce et l'Espagne, cela représentait à peu près 14% du PIB après le lancement de l'euro.

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