Lohnt sich ein Dialog mit dem Iran und Syrien?

Trotz häufig geäußerter gegenteiliger Behauptungen ist das Grundproblem im Mittleren Osten nicht die Einmischung des Westens. Im Gegenteil: Das wahre Problem besteht darin, dass die Westmächte aufgrund ihres Dilettantismus weder zu einem Krieg noch zu einem Dialog in der Lage zu sein scheinen. Daher sind die Bewohner des Mittleren Ostens repressiven Regimen und wachsendem Terrorismus ausgeliefert.

Den Befürwortern des Irakkrieges fehlte es am Verständnis der komplizierten Verhältnisse, um einen effektiven Krieg der Befreiung und Demokratisierung zu führen. Die Folge war, dass ihre Politik letztlich nur zur Eliminierung von zwei Hauptrivalen des Iran in der Region führte: der Taliban und des Regimes von Saddam Hussein. Damit ergab sich für den Iran die einmalige Chance, sich als regionale Hegemonialmacht zu profilieren. Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass sich die Führung des Iran diese Gelegenheit entgehen lässt.

Die Befürworter eines Dialogs mit den Iranern und ihren syrischen Verbündeten, wie der ehemalige amerikanische Außenminister James Baker, erliegen der Illusion, dass man eine Übereinkunft herbeiführen kann, die den USA einen würdevollen Abgang aus dem Irak ermöglicht und dabei hilft, dieses schwer angeschlagene Land zu stabilisieren. Diese Illusion fußt auf zwei irrigen Annahmen: Dass nämlich den Iranern und Syrern gelingt, woran die USA scheiterten und dass es sich die internationale Gemeinschaft leisten kann, den Preis für deren Kooperation zu bezahlen.

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