Le dialogue avec l’Iran et la Syrie est-il vain ?

Même si l’on prétend souvent l’inverse, le problème fondamental au Proche-Orient n’est pas l’intervention de l’Occident. Au contraire, avec toutes leurs hésitations, les puissances occidentales semblent incapables de faire la guerre ou de dialoguer. A cause de cette situation, les populations du Proche-Orient sont à la merci de régimes oppressifs et de terroristes de plus en plus nombreux.

Les partisans de la guerre en Irak ne comprennent pas les complexités d’une guerre efficace dont le but serait de libérer et de démocratiser. En conséquence, leurs politiques n’ont pour résultat que d’éliminer les deux grands rivaux, les Talibans et le régime de Saddam Hussein, laissant à l’Iran une chance en or de dominer la région – et il est peu probable que les dirigeants iraniens ne sautent pas sur l’occasion.

Ceux qui se prononcent en faveur du dialogue avec les Iraniens et leurs alliés syriens, comme l’ancien secrétaire d’État américain James Baker, s’imaginent parvenir à une entente qui permettrait aux Etats-Unis de sortir d’Irak avec élégance et de stabiliser un pays déchiré. Cette idée illusoire repose sur deux suppositions erronées : d’une part, les Iraniens et les Syriens pourraient réussir là où les Américains ont échoué ; d’autre part, la communauté internationale aurait les moyens de garantir leur coopération.

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