Il mercantilismo cinese fa bene o male ai paesi poveri?

CAMBRIDGE – La bilancia commerciale della Cina è sulla buona strada per conseguire un altro eccezionale surplus quest’anno. Nel frattempo, continuano a crescere le preoccupazioni sulle condizioni di ripresa Usa. I due eventi suggeriscono che la Cina sarà nuovamente messa sotto pressione per dare un netto ritocco verso l’alto alla propria valuta. Il conflitto con gli Stati Uniti potrebbe allora giungere a un punto critico durante le udienze del Congresso sullo yuan, che si terranno a settembre, quando più voci spingeranno l’amministrazione Obama a imporre sanzioni qualora la Cina non si attivi a riguardo.

La discussione sulla valuta cinese è incentrata sulla necessità di ridurre il surplus commerciale del paese e di rettificare gli squilibri macroeconomici globali. Con una moneta meno competitiva, così sperano molti analisti, la Cina esporterà meno e importerà di più, dando un contributo positivo alla ripresa degli Usa e delle altre economie.

In tutto questo discutere, lo yuan è visto principalmente come una questione Usa-Cina, mentre gli interessi dei paesi poveri non riescono a farsi ascoltare, nemmeno in forum multilaterali. Eppure un notevole incremento del valore dello yuan potrebbe avere effetti importanti sui paesi in via di sviluppo. Sull’eventualità, tuttavia, che questi paesi possano guadagnarci o perderci a fronte di una rivalutazione dello yuan, ci sono posizioni contrastanti.

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