Les pays pauvres face au mercantilisme chinois

CAMBRIDGE – La balance commerciale chinoise est à nouveau largement excédentaire cette année, alors que les incertitudes qui pèsent sur le redémarrage de l'économie américaine vont croissantes. On peut en déduire que les pressions sur la Chine redoubleront pour qu'elle apprécie fortement sa devise. Le conflit avec les USA pourrait atteindre un point critique ce mois-ci, lors des auditions au Congrès portant sur le renminbi. De nombreuses voix s'élèveront pour demander au gouvernement américain de prendre des sanctions contre la Chine si elle ne faisait rien.

Les discussions sur l renminbi portent sur la nécessité de réduire le surplus commercial chinois et de corriger les déséquilibres macroéconomiques qui affectent l'ensemble de la planète. Avec une devise moins compétitive, beaucoup d'analystes espèrent que la Chine exportera moins et importera plus, ce qui favorisera le redémarrage de l'économie aux USA et ailleurs.

Dans ce débat, on considère essentiellement le renminbi comme un problème sino-américain et l'on ne prend guère en compte l'intérêt des pays pauvres, même lors des forums multilatéraux. Pourtant un renminbi nettement plus fort serait lourd de conséquences pour les pays en développement. Quant à savoir s'ils y gagneraient ou  s'ils y perdraient, les avis divergent.

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