L'économie chinoise est-elle en surchauffe ?

L'économie chinoise connaît une croissance d'une ampleur si époustouflante ; 9,5 % annuels à la fin du deuxième trimestre 2005, qu'elle est devenue la nouvelle coqueluche mondiale et visiblement l'inspiration pour tous les pays en voie de développement. Mais la Chine serait-elle en train d'abuser des bonnes choses ?

Depuis son accession à la présidence en 2003, Hu Jintao n'a eu de cesse de répéter que l'économie chinoise est en surchauffe. Son gouvernement a récemment pris des mesures en conséquence, en relevant les taux d'intérêt en octobre dernier et en imposant une nouvelle taxe sur la vente des logements en juin, ainsi qu'en réévaluant le yuan en juillet.

Cependant, l'affirmation que la Chine est en surchauffe ne semble pas basée sur des observations de l'inflation. L'augmentation annuelle de 5,3 % de l'indice des prix à la consommation chinois fin juillet 2004 était principalement imputable à une hausse brusque des prix de la nourriture. Avant et après, le taux d'inflation était négligeable.

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