Ist China wirklich immun gegen die Krise?

CAMBRIDGE – Bei seiner Ansprache vor dem jährlich im Schweizer Davos stattfindenden Weltwirtschaftsforum erklärte der chinesische Ministerpräsident Wen Jiabao die Pläne seiner Regierung, der globalen wirtschaftlichen Kernschmelze mit öffentlichen Ausgaben und Darlehen entgegenzuwirken. Er garantierte praktisch, dass Chinas jährliches Wachstum 2009 über 8 % bleiben würde. Wens Worte waren für das rezessionserstarrte Publikum von globalen Führungspersönlichkeiten aus Politik und Wirtschaft wie warmer Balsam.

Aber verfügt die chinesische Regierung wirklich über die erforderlichen Instrumente, um ihre Wirtschaft derart widerstandsfähig zu halten? Vielleicht, doch ist das alles andere als offensichtlich.

Amerikas sich vertiefende Rezession setzt Chinas Exportsektor zu, genau wie sie das anderswo in Asien getan hat. Das unmittelbare Problem ist nicht so sehr die Kreditklemme in China, sondern die in den Vereinigten Staaten und Europa, wo viele kleine und mittelgroße Importeure die Handelskredite, die sie zum Kauf von Inventar aus dem Ausland benötigen, nicht bekommen können.

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