La Chine serait-elle en train de dépasser l’Amérique ?

CAMBRIDGE – Le vingt et unième siècle est le témoin du retour de l’Asie à ce qui pourrait être considéré comme ses proportions historiques dans la population et l’économie mondiales. En 1800, l’Asie représentait plus de la moitié de la population et de la production mondiales. En 1900, elle ne représentait plus que 20% de la production –  non parce que quelque chose s’était passé en Asie mais plutôt parce que la révolution industrielle avait fait de l’Europe et de l’Amérique du nord l’atelier du monde.

La relance de l’Asie avait débuté par le Japon pour s’étendre à la Corée du Sud puis à l’Asie du sud-est, en commençant par Singapour et la Malaisie. Aujourd’hui, la relance se concentre sur la Chine et s’envisage de plus en plus en Inde, permettant ainsi à des millions d’individus de s’extraire de la pauvreté.

Ce changement crée cependant aussi des inquiétudes par rapport à l’évolution des relations de pouvoir entre les états. En 2010, la Chine est passée devant le Japon pour devenir la deuxième économie mondiale. Et la banque d’investissement Goldman Sachs prévoit que la taille totale de l’économie chinoise dépassera celle des Etats-Unis en 2027.

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