Předhání Čína Ameriku?

CAMBRIDGE – Jedenadvacáté století je svědkem návratu Asie k podílu na světové populaci a ekonomice, který lze považovat za historický. Roku 1800 představovala Asie víc než polovinu celosvětového počtu obyvatel a velikosti výstupu. V roce 1900 tvořila jen 20 % globálního výstupu – ne proto, že by se v Asii stalo něco zlého, nýbrž proto, že průmyslová revoluce proměnila Evropu a Severní Ameriku v dílnu světa.

Asijské zotavení začalo v Japonsku, pak se přesunulo do Jižní Koreje a dál do jihovýchodní Asie, kde se prvně projevilo v Singapuru a Malajsii. Teď se toto zotavení zaměřuje na Čínu, rostoucí měrou se týká též Indie a svým průběhem vysvobozuje stamiliony lidí z chudoby.

Tato změna ale také vyvolává obavy z přesunu mocenských vazeb mezi státy. V roce 2010 Čína předběhla Japonsko a stala se druhou největší ekonomikou světa. Investiční banka Goldman Sachs očekává, že do roku 2027 Čína co do celkové velikosti ekonomiky překoná Spojené státy.

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