Comments 6

هل تخسر الصين أرضها الدبلوماسية؟

Jul 26, 2012 Kishore Mahbubani

سنغافورة ــ بحلول عام 2016، سوف تصبح حصة الصين في الاقتصاد العالمي أكبر من حصة الولايات المتحدة الأميركية من حيث تعادل القوة الشرائية. وهو تطور مزلزل؛ ففي عام 1980، عندما كانت الولايات المتحدة تستأثر بنحو خمسة وعشرين في المائة من الناتج العالمي، كانت حصة الصين في الاقتصاد العالمي لا تتجاوز 2,2%. أما الآن، وبعد مرور ثلاثين عاماً من الجدارة الجيوسياسية، تبدو الصين وكأنها على وشك فقدان السيطرة في الوقت الذي هي في أشد الحاجة إليها.

من السذاجة والحماقة أن يرتكن زعماء الصين إلى صعودهم السلمي الهادئ إلى التفوق العالمي. فعند نقطة ما، سوف تفيق الولايات المتحدة من غفوتها الجيوسياسية، وهناك من المؤشرات ما يدل بالفعل على أنها فتحت إحدى عينيها.

ولكن الصين بدأت في ارتكاب عدد من الأخطاء الخطيرة، فبعد أن استجابت اليابان للضغوط الصينية وأفرجت عن سفينة الصيد الصينية المحتجزة في سبتمبر/أيلول 2010، أخذت الصين الحماسة وطالبت اليابان بتقديم اعتذار، الأمر الذي أثار حفيظة اليابانيين.

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Peter Anderson Mar 18, 2013

Is there any surprise China would choose to appease Indonesia first? One of the central ideas motivating China's claim to the 'West Philippine Sea' etc is to achieve priority access for its traders and military to the Indian Ocean. There's more. Indonesia is also geographically 'behind' all the other nations resisting China's expansion into the area, so clearly a strategy of encirclement is not out of China's gameplan. China's influence over Australia - once again geographically 'behind' Indonesia et al. - means that the other nations are also potentially caught between a rock and a hard place, or a miner and his market.
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Sugandha Pahwa Nov 21, 2012

what is irrestible about the east shift ?
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Sugandha Pahwa Nov 21, 2012

yes
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Daniel Gomes Aug 19, 2012

Not sure if the author is just being naive or deliberately toning down its own opinion for fear of its repercussions given his prominent role in Singapore's diplomacy and the respective relations with China but... the fact is that if these hard-line policies were not decided on the highest levels of China's leadership then how to explain that soon after these events, China government created an official municipality covering a large cluster of these disputed islands? And what to say of "opening" blocks of Vietnam shore for tenders from oil prospection companies?
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Maurice Vilrokx Jul 28, 2012

asian intellectuals often are too much focused on the institutional analysis in my opinion.
As a result, they miss the particularities of the dynamism currently observable in the West, iniatiated by relatively autonomous citizens.
In other words: the west has had its class struggles too in the past century, which caused this liberated, autonomous public sphere.
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هل تخسر الصين أرضها الدبلوماسية؟

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