Il capitalismo è destinato a fallire?

NEW YORK – La massiccia volatilità e l’intensa correzione dei prezzi azionari, che stanno colpendo in questi giorni i mercati finanziari globali, indicano che la maggior parte delle economie avanzate è sull’orlo di una doppia recessione. La crisi economica e finanziaria causata dall’eccessivo indebitamento del settore privato e dalla leva finanziaria ha portato a un nuovo pesante indebitamento del settore pubblico volto a evitare una Grande Depressione. Ma la relativa ripresa è stata anemica e al di sotto della media nelle più importanti economie mondiali, a causa dei dolorosi interventi di deleveraging.

Ora il rincaro dei prezzi relativi al petrolio e alle materie prime, le rivolte nel Medio Oriente, il terremoto e lo tsunami del Giappone, le crisi di debito nell’Eurozona, i problemi fiscali in America (e adesso il declassamento del rating) hanno provocato una massiccia avversione al rischio. A livello economico, gli Stati Uniti, l’Eurozona, il Regno Unito e il Giappone stanno sprecando denaro. Anche i mercati emergenti in rapida crescita (Cina, Asia emergente e America Latina) e le economie orientate all’export che si affidano a questi mercati (Germania e Australia ricca di risorse) stanno registrando intense fasi di contrazione.

Fino allo scorso anno i policymaker sapevano come scendere in campo per innescare una reflazione e far ripartire l’economia. Stimoli fiscali, tassi di interesse quasi inchiodati a zero, due cicli di “quantitative easing”, titoli di debito tossici, migliaia di miliardi di dollari spesi in pacchetti di salvataggio e liquidità fornita a banche e istituti finanziari: le hanno provate tutte. Ora sono a corto di munizioni.

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