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资本主义完蛋了吗?

纽约——全球金融市场正在经历的大动荡和股价大修正表明,大多数发达经济体正站在双底衰退的悬崖边上。这场金融经济危机原本是由过高的私人部门负债和杠杆率所引爆的,政府为防止大萧条再度上演,付出了公共部门严重地再杠杆化的代价。但换来的经济复苏绵软无力,达不到预期水平,因为大多数发达经济体都还在去杠杆化过程中苦苦挣扎。

如今,高企的石油和商品价格、中东的乱局、日本的地震海啸、欧元区债务危机,加上美国的财政麻烦(和信用降级),共同推高了风险厌恶情绪。美国、欧元区、英国和日本的经济都停滞不前,甚至连快速增长的新兴市场(中国、亚洲新兴经济体、拉美)和依赖这些市场的出口型经济体(德国和盛产资源的澳大利亚),也开始急剧减速。

直到去年,政策制定者还能从帽子里继续变出兔子,靠推高资产价格启动经济复苏。财政刺激、零利率、两轮“量化宽松”、给坏账“扎篱笆”(ring-fencing)、用数万亿美元给银行和金融机构赎身并提供周转资金:官员们使尽了浑身解数。如今,兔子用光了。

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