Прав ли Буш?

Что бы ни думали критики дома и заграницей, «повышение активности», планируемое президентом Бушем в Ираке – это больше, чем просто увеличение численности войск, а новая и очень рискованная региональная стратегия. Надо отметить, что план Буша будет недостаточным и слишком запоздалым для того, чтобы стабилизировать Ирак. Но он предлагает США некоторые долгосрочные преимущества в региональной борьбе за влияние с Ираном.

В основе новой стратегии лежит решение Буша начать борьбу с самой могущественной военизированной группировкой Ирака – «Армией Махди». Находясь под номинальным контролем радикального духовника Мохтады аль-Садра, эта группировка стала самой крупной и хорошо вооруженной силой, преследующей собственные цели в области политики и безопасности.

«Армия Махди» вступала в вооруженные столкновения с американскими войсками и раньше, особенно во время ожесточенных боев за контроль городов Наджаф и Карбала на юге Ирака в 2004 году. Эти столкновения завершились своего рода перемирием (хотя небольшие перестрелки продолжались), потому что американские войска не хотели одновременно вести борьбу с суннитскими повстанцами и шиитскими боевиками.

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