Je Bernanke připraven?

Ben Bernanke, kandidát, který má tento měsíc vystřídat Alana Greenspana na postu předsedy Federálního rezervního úřadu USA, je velice schopný ekonom, který svůj profesní život zasvětil porozumění historické úloze centrálních bank a problémům, jimž čelily. Jeho názory představují, nakolik jen lze očekávat, konsenzus mezi těmi, kdo tyto otázky pečlivě studovali.

To však neznamená, že je Bernanke připraven zajistit, aby v nadcházejících letech v USA vytrval zdravý hospodářský růst, a poskytovat takové vedení, které svět potřebuje. Měřeno tím, co se dnes všeobecně chápe, si povede dobře. To ale bohužel nemusí stačit.

John Maynard Keynes kdysi řekl, že měnová politika může fungovat jako provaz. Centrální banka může za provaz zatáhnout (zvýšit úrokové sazby), aby přitáhla oprať ekonomice, která se neudržitelně žene vpřed. Nemůže ji ale provazem postrčit: jestliže hospodářský růst stagnuje, například když se vážně naruší důvěra, snížení úrokových sazeb nemusí na stimulaci poptávky stačit. V takovém případě může k recesi dojít navzdory nejlepším snahám centrální banky.

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