¿Será Azerbaiyán el siguiente?

Mientas Azerbaiyán se prepara para las elecciones parlamentarias del 6 de noviembre, la cuestión principal es la de si el país está a punto de experimentar su propia revolución “de color”, siguiendo los pasos de las que han derrocado a las capas dirigentes postsoviéticas en Georgia, Ucrania y Kirguizstán en los dos últimos años. No se puede descartar semejante resultado, pero las perspectivas son inciertas, en el mejor de los casos.

El partido gobernante de Azerbaiyán, Eni Azerbaijan, afronta desafíos por todos lados, pese al apoyo del Presidente Ilham Aliyev y su privilegiado acceso a los recursos estatales. Al menos tres partidos de oposición –el “Mussavat” de Isa Gambar, el “Frente Nacional” de Ala Keremela y el Partido Democrático Social– han conservado el apoyo y la influencia política desde que Ilham sucedió a su difunto padre, Heydar Aliyev, en 2003.

Además, como Georgia, Ucrania y Kirguizstán, la política dinástica en Azerbaiyán refleja el dominio de clanes en los que el éxito de sus miembros va determinado por la proximidad al presidente. Si bien esa clase de sistemas puede parecer estable, son inherentemente frágiles, pues son sinónimos de ilegitimidad, injusticia y pobreza abyecta para la mayoría de la población.

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