Неужели Азербайджан следующий?

По мере того, как Азербайджан приближается к парламентским выборам, которые состоятся 6 ноября, главный вопрос заключается в том, произойдет ли в стране своя собственная "цветная" революция, как были свергнуты бывшие советские элиты в Грузии, Украине и Кыргызстане за последние два года. Нельзя исключать такой исход, но перспективы в лучшем случае являются неопределенными.

Правящая партия Азербайджана, Эни Азербайджан, столкнулась с проблемами со всех сторон, несмотря на поддержку президента Илхама Алиева и привилегированного доступа к государственным ресурсам. По крайней мере, три оппозиционные партии – партия Изы Гамбар «Мусават», партия Ала Керемела «Национальный Фронт» и Социал-демократическая Партия – пользовались поддержкой и политическим влиянием с тех пор, как Илхам стал преемником своего недавно умершего отца - Гейдара Алиева - в 2003 г.

Более того, как и в Грузии, Украине и Кыргызстане, династическая политика в Азербайджане отражает господство кланов, успех членов которых определяется близостью к президенту. В то время, как такие системы могут казаться стабильными, по сути, они являются хрупкими, т.к. для большинства населения они - синонимы беззакония, несправедливости и крайней бедности.

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