Als nächstes Aserbaidschan?

Während sich Aserbaidschan auf die Parlamentswahlen am 6. November vorbereitet, ist die wesentliche Frage, ob das Land vor einer eigenen „farbigen“ Revolution steht, entsprechend dem Muster jener, die in den letzten zwei Jahren die postsowjetischen Eliten in Georgien, der Ukraine und Kirgistan gestürzt haben. Ein derartiges Ergebnis lässt sich nicht gänzlich von der Hand weisen, die Aussichten dafür sind jedoch im besten Falle unsicher.

Die herrschende Partei Aserbaidschans, Eni Aserbaidschan, steht allseits vor Herausforderungen, und zwar trotz der Unterstützung durch Präsident Ilham Alijew und dem bevorzugten Zugriff auf staatliche Ressourcen. Zumindest drei Oppositionsparteien – die „Mussawat“ Isa Gambars, die Nationale Front Ala Keremelas und die Sozialdemokraten – haben Unterstützung und politischen Einfluss gewonnen, seit Ilham Alijew im Jahre 2003 seinem verstorbenen Vater Heydar nachfolgte.

Darüber hinaus spiegelt die dynastisch bestimmte politische Lage in Aserbaidschan – wie in Georgien, der Ukraine und Kirgistan – die Dominanz von Klans wider, bei denen der Erfolg ihrer Mitglieder durch die Nähe zum Präsidenten bestimmt ist. Derartige Systeme mögen stabil erscheinen; sie sind jedoch von ihrem Wesen her anfällig, denn sie stehen für Gesetzlosigkeit, Unrecht und die bittere Armut des Großteils der Bevölkerung.

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