La révolution orange : au tour de l'Azerbaïdjan ?

A l'occasion des élections législatives du 6 novembre, l'Azerbaïdjan va-t-il connaître lui aussi sa révolution orange, à l'instar de celles qui ont balayé les élites post-soviétiques en Géorgie, en Ukraine et au Kirghizistan au cours des deux dernières années. On ne peut exclure ce scénario, mais il est improbable.

Le parti au pouvoir, le Yeni Azerbaïdjan (Nouvel Azerbaïdjan), est en mauvaise posture, ceci malgré le soutien du président Ilham Aliev et les fonds de l’État dont il bénéficie. Au moins trois partis d'opposition, le Moussavat (Egalité) d'Isa Gambar, le Front national d'Ala Kermela et le Parti démocratique social conservent de l'influence depuis qu'Ilham Aliev a succédé à son père, Heydar Aliev, en 2003.

Comme en Géorgie, en Ukraine et au Kirghizistan, l'émergence d'une dynastie traduit la domination de clans dont le succès dépend de leur proximité avec le président. Un tel système peut paraître stable, mais il est structurellement fragile, car synonyme d'arbitraire, d'injustice et de misère pour la majorité de la population.

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