阿塞拜疆是否会成为下一个?

随着阿塞拜疆为11月6日举行的议会选举做好了准备,主要的问题集中在该国是否也会步过去两年间推翻了后苏联高层人物的格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦的后尘爆发“色彩”革命。这种可能性无法排除,但如果论及前景至多也就是不能确定。

尽管拥有伊尔哈姆·阿利耶夫总统的支持和优先使用国家资源的权利,阿塞拜疆执政党新阿塞拜疆党仍然面临着全面的挑战。伊萨·甘巴尔的穆萨瓦特党、克瑞姆里的人民阵线党以及阿塞拜疆的民族独立党等至少三个反对派政党从伊尔哈姆2003年接替他已故的父亲盖达尔·阿利耶夫担任总统后就一直保持着自己的支持力量和政治影响。

更有甚者,与格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦一样,阿塞拜疆的王朝政治是各个家族势力的反映,而家族势力的强弱又取决与家族成员与总统的密切关系。尽管这样的体系看起来非常稳固,但从本质上讲却十分脆弱,因为对大多数人来讲,无法无天、缺乏公正和一贫如洗与上述体系如影随形。

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