¿Puede Ahmadinejad llegar ahora a un acuerdo sobre el problema nuclear?

BERLÍN - Esta semana en Estambul, los representantes de Irán y el grupo "5 +1" (los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU más Alemania), liderado por la Alta Representante para Asuntos Exteriores de la Unión Europea, Catherine Ashton, reanudarán las conversaciones sobre el programa nuclear iraní. No es probable que haya avances espectaculares, pero el resultado podría ser más favorable de lo que muchos esperan.

En octubre de 2009 se logró un principio de entendimiento, según el cual el uranio iraní de bajo enriquecimiento (UBE) sería entregado a Rusia para proseguir con su enriquecimiento y convertirlo en barras de combustible para el reactor de investigación de Teherán (RIT). Pero el acuerdo tropezó con la política interna de Irán: los adversarios políticos del presidente Mahmoud Ahmadinejad acabaron por bloquearlo. ¿Podría ocurrir lo mismo otra vez?

Ahmadinejad, muy debilitado tras su disputada reelección de 2009, ha consolidado ahora su posición. Los representantes de su régimen siguen manifestando preocupación por lo que ven como intentos apoyados desde el exterior por organizar una "revolución de terciopelo" en el país, pero hay poco temor a nuevos retos desde el interior.

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