Сможет ли Ахмадинежад беспрепятственно совершить ядерную сделку?

БЕРЛИН. На этой неделе представители Ирана и группы “5+1” (пять постоянных членов Совета Безопасности Организации Объединенных Наций плюс Германия), возглавляемые верховным представителем Европейского Союза по иностранным делам Кэтрин Эштон, возобновят переговоры по иранской ядерной программе. Вероятно, прорыва не будет, но итог может быть более благоприятным, чем многие предполагают.

В октябре 2009 года было достигнуто изначальное понимание, согласно которому иранский низкообогащенный уран будет доставляться в Россию для дальнейшего обогащения и превращения в топливные стержни для тегеранского исследовательского реактора (TRR). Но эта договоренность спотыкается об иранскую внутреннюю политику: политические оппоненты президента Махмуда Ахмадинежада эффективно его блокировали. Может ли то же самое случиться снова?

Ахмадинежад, который сильно ослаб после своего спорного переизбрания в 2009 году, сейчас снова упрочил свое положение. Представители его режима все еще встревожены по поводу того, что они считают поддерживаемой извне попыткой произвести “бархатную революцию” в стране, но они испытывают мало страха по поводу новых проблем изнутри.

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