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El retorno de la burbuja inmobiliaria de Irlanda

ZÚRICH – Después de haber soportado el colapso de su mercado inmobiliario hace menos de diez años, Irlanda últimamente ha experimentado una recuperación feroz de los precios, que ya han aumentado en Dublín aproximadamente el 50% desde el punto mínimo en 2010. ¿Acaso Irlanda va camino a otra crisis devastadora?

No es un secreto que el colapso de las burbujas de activos conlleva enormes costos financieros y sociales. Al frenarse la actividad y la inversión en el sector de la construcción, las recesiones agudas -que hacen que los ingresos tributarios caigan, en momentos en que el creciente desempleo exige un mayor gasto social- son inevitables. A los contribuyentes hasta se les puede pedir que apuntalen la base de capital de las instituciones financieras. La última vez que esto sucedió en Irlanda, representó un costo de más de 60.000 millones de euros (67.000 millones de dólares), o aproximadamente el 40% del PIB.

Las burbujas inmobiliarias no son difíciles de detectar; por el contrario, suelen llegar a los titulares mucho antes de que estallen. Sin embargo, están muy lejos de ser excepcionales. Las burbujas en Irlanda, España, el Reino Unido y Estados Unidos colapsaron después de la crisis financiera que estalló en 2008. Después de que se desatara la crisis financiera asiática en 1997, los precios de las propiedades en Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malasia, Filipinas, Corea del Sur y Tailandia se hundieron entre 20 y 60%. Y una década antes, Suecia, Noruega y Finlandia experimentaron caídas de los precios de la propiedad del 30-50%.

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