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Le retour de la bulle immobilière irlandaise

ZURICH Après avoir résisté à l'effondrement de son marché immobilier il y a moins de dix ans, l'Irlande a connu dernièrement une relance des prix foudroyante, qui ont déjà augmenté à Dublin de 50 % par rapport à la dépression de 2010. L'Irlande est-elle en train de mettre en place un nouvel accident dévastateur ?

Ce n'est pas un secret que l'effondrement des bulles entraîne des coûts financiers et sociaux massifs. Avec l'activité du bâtiment et les dépenses d'investissement au point mort, de fortes récessions (qui causent des baisses des recettes fiscales, alors que la flambée de chômage exige une augmentation des dépenses sociales), sont inévitables. Les contribuables sont même parfois invités à consolider la base de capital des institutions financières. La dernière fois que cela s'est produit en Irlande, cela a coûté plus de 60 milliards d'euros (67 milliards de dollars), soit environ 40 % du PIB.

Les bulles de logement ne sont pas difficiles à repérer; au contraire, elles font généralement les gros titres longtemps avant qu'elles n'apparaissent. Pourtant, elles sont loin d'être rares. Les bulles en Irlande, en Espagne, au Royaume-Uni et aux États-Unis se sont effondrées après la crise financière qui a éclaté en 2008. Après la crise financière asiatique a éclaté en 1997, les prix de l'immobilier à Hong Kong, en Indonésie, en Malaisie, aux Philippines, en Corée du Sud et en Thaïlande ont chuté entre 20 et 60 %. Et dix ans plus tôt, la Suède, la Norvège et la Finlande ont connu une baisse de 30 à 50 % sur le prix des matières premières.

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