Bloomberg/ Getty Images

爱尔兰房地产泡沫回归

苏黎世—经历上一场房地产市场崩盘还不到十年,爱尔兰最近发生了价格大幅复苏的情况,都柏林房价较2010年上涨了50%左右。爱尔兰又要面临新一场灾难性崩盘吗?

资产泡沫崩盘带来巨大的金融和社会成本,这已不是秘密。建筑活动和投资几乎陷入停顿,急剧衰退难以避免,导致税收收入下降,尽管激增的失业要求提高社会支出。纳税人甚至被要求充实金融机构的资本基础。爱尔兰上一次发生这一情况的时候造成了600亿欧元以上的损失,相当于其GDP的40%左右。

房地产泡沫不难看出;相反,它们常常在形成燎原之势前就占据媒体头条。然而房地产泡沫并不罕见。爱尔兰、西班牙、英国和美国的泡沫都在2008年爆发的金融危机后崩溃。1997年亚洲金融危机爆发后,香港、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、韩国和泰国的房价下跌了20—60%。而十年前,瑞典、挪威和芬兰也经历了30—50%的房价下跌。

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