Dean Rohrer

A Líbia Iraquiana

GENEBRA - Enquanto a Líbia da pós-revolução avança, o Iraque paira como um exemplo perigoso. Após 42 anos de ditadura, a Líbia, tal como o Iraque após a queda de Saddam Hussein em 2003, precisa de mais do que boas intenções para se tornar uma democracia vibrante. Precisa de uma construção do Estado organizada em Trípoli - e de formulação de políticas realistas em capitais ocidentais.

As transições bem-sucedidas dependem desde o início de factores cruciais que a Líbia ainda não tem - uma liderança relativamente coesa, uma sociedade civil activa e unidade nacional. Sem estes factores, é provável que a Líbia não encontre o seu equilíbrio e, à semelhança do que aconteceu no Iraque pós-Saddam, irá passar por uma divisão política persistente e uma desordem civil volátil, além de uma série multifacetada de pressões geopolíticas.

Evitar um tal desfecho pressupõe a existência de um centro político forte. Mas, desde o início das insurreições em Fevereiro de 2011, a Líbia foi politicamente volatilizada. Falta-lhe o tipo de sociedade civil que poderia ter conduzido a revolta e plantado as sementes para as políticas pós-autoritárias, como foi o caso na Tunísia e (mais problematicamente) no Egipto.

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