Dean Rohrer

Libyen darf nicht der Irak werden

GENF – Nun, da Libyen in seine postrevolutionäre Zukunft blickt, dräut der Irak als gefährliches Beispiel. Nach 42 Jahren der Diktatur braucht Libyen, ebenso wie der Irak nach dem Sturz Saddam Husseins im Jahr 2003, mehr als nur Wunschdenken, um zu einer lebendigen Demokratie zu werden. Es bedarf einer organisierten Staatenbildung in Tripolis – und einer realistischen Politik in den Hauptstädten des Westens.

Erfolgreiche Übergangsphasen beruhen von Beginn an auf Faktoren, an denen es in Libyen in entscheidender Weise fehlt – eine relativ geschlossene Führung, eine aktive Zivilgesellschaft und nationale Einheit. Ohne diese Voraussetzungen wird Libyen höchstwahrscheinlich keinen Halt finden und, so wie der Irak nach Saddam, nicht nur unter vielfältigen geopolitischen Zwängen, sondern auch unter anhaltender politischer Spaltung und unvorhersehbaren Unruhen leiden.

Um derartige Entwicklungen zu vermeiden, bedarf es eines starken politischen Zentrums. Doch Libyen ist seit dem Ausbruch des Aufstandes im Februar 2011 politisch zersplittert. Es fehlt an jener Art von Zivilgesellschaft, die, so wie in Tunesien und (problematischer) in Ägypten, den Aufstand angeführt und den Grundstein für eine postautoritäre Politik gelegt hätte.

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