Dean Rohrer

Une Libye iraquienne

GENEVE – A l’heure où la Libye d’après la révolution se tourne vers son avenir, l’Irak se pose en dangereux exemple. Après 42 années de dictature, la Libye, comme l’Irak en 2003 après la chute de Saddam Hussein, ne peut se contenter de vœux pieux pour évoluer en une éclatante démocratie. Elle lui faut un appareil d’Etat organisé à Tripoli – et l’élaboration d’une politique réaliste dans les capitales occidentales.

Le succès d’une transition dépend dès ses prémices de facteurs qui font encore cruellement défaut en Libye – une gouvernance relativement cohésive, une société civile active, et l’unité nationale. Sans ces éléments, la Libye ne parviendra pas à trouver son rythme et subira, tout comme l’Irak post-Saddam, la persistance de divisions politiques et un désordre civil volatile, ainsi que de multiples pressions géopolitiques.

Echapper à ce dénouement présuppose un centre politique fort. Mais dès les premiers soulèvements en février 2011, la Libye a été atomisée politiquement. Elle manque d’un type de société civile susceptible de prendre la tête des soulèvements et de planter les graines d’une vie politique post-autoritaire, comme ce fut le cas en Tunisie et (plus problématiquement) en Egypte.

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