Dean Rohrer

Libye na způsob Iráku

ŽENEVA – V době, kdy postrevoluční Libye hledí kupředu, nabízí se Irák jako nebezpečný příklad. Po 42 letech diktatury potřebuje Libye – podobně jako Irák po pádu Saddáma Husajna v roce 2003 – víc než jen zbožná přání, aby se stala pulzující demokracií. Potřebuje organizované budování státu v Tripolisu – a realistickou politiku v hlavních městech západních zemí.

Úspěšné přechody k demokracii závisejí od prvopočátku na faktorech, které v Libyi stále kriticky scházejí – na relativně soudržném vedení, na aktivní občanské společnosti a na národní jednotě. Bez těchto faktorů Libye pravděpodobně nedokáže najít svou tvář a podobně jako postsaddámovský Irák bude trpět trvalým politickým rozkolem, nevyzpytatelným občanským chaosem a také dlouhou řadou geopolitických tlaků.

Odvrácení takového výsledku předpokládá silné politické centrum. Libye je však už od vypuknutí povstání v únoru 2011 politicky atomizovaná. Postrádá takovou občanskou společnost, jaká by se byla mohla postavit do čela povstání a zasít semínka postautoritářské politiky, jak se stalo v Tunisku a také (o něco problematičtěji) v Egyptě.

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