El Gobierno Potemkin del Iraq

Tras acabar el recuento de los votos de las elecciones celebradas en diciembre en el Iraq, los intentos para formar un nuevo gobierno van a acelerarse. Resulta alentador que todas las partes parecen aceptar los resultados, pero la pregunta que hay que formular sobre el futuro del país sigue siendo ésta: ¿se unirán los chiíes, suníes y kurdos bajo una autoridad central que funcione?

A corto plazo, hay razones poderosas para pensar que los más poderosos de los principales grupos del Iraq así lo harán, pero, ¿podrá cualquier gobierno de esa clase administrar el país en conjunto? Es probable que la respuesta a esa pregunta sea negativa, razón por la cual dentro de un año el Iraq será probablemente un país menos estable.

También los suníes apoyarán al gobierno, al menos al principio, porque representa su única oportunidad de obtener la que consideran su cuota del poder, los recursos y las rentas. Los kurdos aceptarán el acuerdo, porque creen que la nueva constitución garantiza su derecho a controlar la mayor parte de la riqueza petrolera que se encuentra debajo de su territorio y porque no quieren que se los culpe, en caso de que Bagdad sea presa del caos.

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