Le gouvernement Potemkine en Irak

Maintenant que les résultats des élections en Irak sont connus, les chances de parvenir à former un nouveau gouvernement sont de plus en plus importantes. Signe d’encouragement, tous les partis semblent accepter les résultats. Mais, la question essentielle concernant l’avenir du pays reste toujours la même : les Chiites, les Sunnites et les Kurdes parviendront-ils à s’unir derrière une autorité centrale efficace ?

Sur le court terme, nous avons de bonnes raisons de penser que le plus puissant des trois groupes majoritaires irakiens le fera. Or, un tel gouvernement peut-il administrer le pays dans sa totalité? Il semblerait que la réponse à cette question soit négative. C’est pourquoi, nous pouvons facilement croire que, d’ici un an, l’Irak sera un endroit encore moins stable qu’au jourd’hui.

Une fois formé, le nouveau gouvernement irakien semblera au moins viable sur le court terme. Les Chiites ont un intérêt évident à soutenir le gouvernement central. En effet, ils croient qu’en raison de leur poids démographique (60 % de la population en Irak), la démocratie représentative leur garantira le droit de gouverner et de se protéger des attaques et des exigences sunnites.

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