伊拉克的波坦金式政府

随着伊拉克去年12月大选选票统计结果的公布,建立新政府的企图正蓄势提速。令人振奋的是,相关各方似乎都接受了大选的结果。但关乎这个国家未来的核心问题仍然是:什叶派、逊尼派和库尔德人是否能够联合起来组建一个能发挥作用的中央政权?

就短期来看,我们有理由相信伊拉克的三大主要集团中最强有力的(派系)将会这样做。但是任何一个这样的政府都能够将该国作为一个整体来治理吗?这个问题的答案很可能是否定的,这就是为什么伊拉克的局势在一年之后很可能远不如现在稳定的原因。

新的伊拉克政府建成后至少表面上在不远的将来有一定的生命力。什叶派愿意支持中央政府,因为他们相信其人口优势(占伊拉克总人口的60%)意味着代议式民主将保证他们的统治权,保护他们抵御逊尼派的要求和攻击。

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