伊拉克的半步之举

伊拉克相对成功的大选是民主进程中的一个伟大胜利,但对中东的自由改革而言却非必然之步。

这是一个显著区别。作为伊拉克境内的反民主力量的阿拉伯穆斯林逊尼派恐怖集团,包括垮台的萨达姆·侯赛因政权的支持者和乌萨马·本拉登极端伊斯兰主义的追从者,都试图阻止人们前去投票。因为占人口总数不到25%的阿拉伯逊尼派知道,他们无法赢得一场民主的选举。许多逊尼派领导人还鼓励联合抵制选举。

相比之下,伊拉克人口总数的75%由什叶派穆斯林和库尔德派穆斯林构成。什叶派非常清楚自己将掌控新政权,而库尔德派则要求获得地区自治。因此,大部分伊拉克人确信,一个由民主选举产生的政府将为他们的利益服务,因而对参与投票热情高涨。什叶派的宗教领袖甚至发布宗教命令,规定包括妇女在内的所有人都要参与投票,选举日那天谁若呆在家里将被视作犯罪。

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