hassan rouhani STR/AFP/Getty Images

Stürzt Rohani über die iranische Wirtschaft?

CAMBRIDGE – Obwohl der Iran eine „gelenkte Demokratie“ ist, sind die Präsidentschaftswahlen dort erstaunlich unberechenbar. Die nächste Wahl am 19. Mai ist dabei keine Ausnahme. Der Amtsinhaber Hassan Rouhani muss sich gegen einen zähen konservativen Herausforderer durchsetzen.

Rohanis Gegner Ebrahim Raisi ist ein hochrangiger Geistlicher, der auch als möglicher Nachfolger für den Obersten Religionsführer Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gehandelt wird. Insbesondere kam Raisis Kampagne in Schwung, als ein weiterer Hardliner aus dem Rennen ausschied – Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Bürgermeister von Teheran, der bei den Wahlen im Jahr 2013 ein Drittel von Rohanis Stimmen bekommen hatte.

Als Rohani 2013 gewählt wurde, litt der Iran unter einer jährlichen Inflation von 35%. Im Vorjahr war die staatliche Währung um zwei Drittel abgewertet worden, und die Wirtschaft wurde durch internationale Sanktionen behindert. Sowohl die Ölexporte als auch die Automobilherstellung – Irans führende Produktionsbranche – waren um zwei Drittel zurückgegangen, und die Industriearbeiter forderten ihre ausstehenden Löhne ein.

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