hassan rouhani STR/AFP/Getty Images

伊朗经济会埋没鲁哈尼吗?

坎布里奇—对一个“管理的民主国家”(managed democracy)来说,伊朗的总统选举以难以预测闻名。即将在5月19日举行的此次选举也不例外,因为现任总统鲁哈尼面临两位强硬保守派挑战者。

鲁哈尼的对手是伊布拉西姆·莱西(Ebrahim Raisi),他是一位高级别神职人员、被认为有可能继哈梅内伊之后成为下一任伊朗最高领袖的伊布拉西姆·莱西(Ebrahim Raisi)。此前还有一位强硬派候选人——德黑兰市长穆罕默德·巴格尔·卡利巴夫(Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf),他在2013年的选举中获得票数是鲁哈尼的三分之一。卡利巴夫的退选对莱西阵营来说是一个提振。

2013年鲁哈尼当选上台时,伊朗正遭遇35%的通胀,伊朗货币在此前一年中贬值了三分之二,还有国际制裁压得经济喘不过气来。石油出口和伊朗最重要的制造业——汽车产量都下跌了三分之二,焦躁不安的产业工人要求偿还欠薪。

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