Irán vs. Gran Bretaña: ¿Quién parpadeó?

Mientras los analistas denunciaban que Gran Bretaña capituló ante Irán y les entregó una victoria humillante al obtener la liberación de los 15 marines británicos la semana pasada, parecería que lo que realmente pasó fue casi todo lo contrario. Pero para entender por qué esto es así, tenemos que analizar el panorama más amplio de la política interna iraní en el que se desarrolló la crisis.

Nuestro problema iraní, en realidad, es un problema con el Cuerpo de los Guardianes de la Revolución Islámica (CGRI o Pasdaran en persa) y las instituciones aliadas como la milicia Basij. Estos son los órganos de “poder” que actúan como la base política para los conservadores dentro de Irán. A cambio de su apoyo, los líderes políticos como el ex presidente Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani y el líder supremo ayatollah Ali Khamenei permitieron que el CGRI creciera hasta convertirse en un Estado semiautónomo dentro de otro Estado. Hoy es una entidad grande y en expansión que controla su propia agencia de inteligencia, una base industrial y compañías de importación-exportación, como el FSB ruso o el ejército chino. Desde que llegó al poder, el actual régimen de Ahmedinejad le otorgó a las compañías asociadas con el CGRI miles de millones de dólares en contratos de asignación directa, con lo cual no hizo más que aumentar la percepción de corrupción que ya predomina en la población.

Existe un consenso generalizado de que el líder supremo Khamenei puso en funciones al actual presidente chiflado Mahmoud Ahmedinejad como una manera de contrarrestar al ex presidente Rafsanjani, y que ha lamentado esta decisión desde que Ahmedinejad se fue de boca sobre el Holocausto y sumergió a Irán en un aislamiento cada vez más profundo. El actual presidente proviene del CGRI (específicamente, de la unidad Ramazan de la fuerza Quds) y utilizó a esta organización y a la milicia Basij para ayudar a consolidar su poder actuando en contra de los opositores políticos más liberales.

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