Qui de l’Iran ou de la Grande-Bretagne a cillé en premier ?

Des commentateurs accusent la Grande-Bretagne d’avoir capitulé devant l’Iran et de lui avoir cédé une victoire humiliante en obtenant la libération de 15 marins britanniques la semaine dernière, mais ce serait plutôt le contraire qui se produit. Pour comprendre pourquoi, il convient de tenir compte de l’ensemble de la politique interne iranienne sur fond de crise.

Le problème iranien est en fait lié au Corps des gardes de la Révolution islamique (IRGC ou en perse Pasdaran ) et aux institutions alliées telles que la milice Basidj. Ces entités de « pouvoir » servent de base politique aux conservateurs d’Iran. En échange de leur soutien, les leaders politiques comme l’ancien président Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani et le chef suprême, l’ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ont permis à l’IRGC de devenir un État semi‑autonome dans l’État. Il s’agit aujourd’hui d’une vaste entreprise tentaculaire qui contrôle sa propre agence de renseignements, une infrastructure de production et des sociétés d’import-export, à l’image de la FSB russe ou de l’armée chinoise. Depuis son arrivée au pouvoir, l’actuel régime Ahmedinejad a accordé aux filiales de l’IRGC des contrats sans appels d’offres représentant des milliards – ce qui n’a fait que renforcer sa réputation de corruption aux yeux du public iranien.

Il est largement admis que le chef suprême Khamenei a mis au pouvoir le président fou Mahmoud Ahmedinejad pour faire contrepoids à l’ancien président Rafsanjani et qu’il regrette cette décision depuis lors, car Ahmedinejad a déblatéré sur l’Holocauste et n’a fait qu’exacerber la situation d’isolement de l’Iran. Le président actuel est issu du IRGC (précisément de l’unité Ramazan des forces Quds) et a utilisé cette organisation et les Basidj pour consolider son pouvoir face à des opposants politiques plus nombreux.

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