伊朗和英国谁示弱了?

当评论家们批评英国向伊朗屈服,在上周释放15名英国水兵的问题上让其赢得一场羞辱性胜利的时候,真正的情况似乎却恰恰相反。要理解为什么会是这样,我们应该从危机发展的伊朗国内政局大背景说起。

伊朗真正的问题在于伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC,伊斯兰语中称为Pasdaran)和巴斯基民兵。这些“强力”机构是伊朗国内保守派的政治基础。作为对其支持的回报,像前总统拉夫桑贾尼和最高领袖哈梅内伊允许伊斯兰革命卫队壮大为一个半自治的国中之国。今天它是一个庞大并且涉足广泛的单位,控制其自身的情报部门、制造业和进出口公司,很像俄罗斯的克格勃和中国的军队。自登台以来,现总统内贾德送给伊斯兰革命卫队的下属公司几十亿的未经过招标的合同,使得在伊朗国民眼中本已盛行的腐败变得更加猖獗。

大家普遍认为最高领袖哈梅内伊之所以让狂人内贾德走上现在的总统宝座是为了制约前总统拉夫桑贾尼,但是自从内贾德在犹太人大屠杀的问题上大放大放厥词,并且把伊朗越来越推向孤立的深渊,他开始后悔自己的决定了。现任总统出身于伊斯兰革命卫队(确切地说,是圣城旅的拉马赞分队),并且依靠该组织和巴斯基民兵的帮助通过打击自由派政治对手来巩固他的权力。

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